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This announcement is a notice of intent to award a sole source purchase order to the Southern California Earthquake Science Center, Los Angeles, CA under the requirements of FAR Part 13 and FAR 6.302-1," Other Than Full and Open Competition - one responsible source". The contractor will provide reports regarding the complex activity of numerical modeling of tsunami hydrodynamics, wave breaking, run-up, draw-down, inundation, current velocity, tsunami erosion, contaminant concentration and tsunami hazard assessment to senior USGS geologists and geophysicists on the effects and impacts of a significant trans-Pacific tsunami primarily in California, but also in limited additional areas defined by the USGS. For tsunami modeling associated with the SAFRR tsunami scenario, the contractor shall provide reports as listed below: Provide detailed hydrodynamic simulations for three additional harbor locations in California. For the locations of 1) Oakland/Richmond, 2) Half Moon Bay, and 3) Santa Cruz, provide simulations at approximately 5 m resolution using the high-order Boussinesq-type model COULWAVE. The Oakland/Richmond simulation area will focus on the major port facilities in the area and the Half Moon Bay and Santa Cruz simulations will focus on Pillar Point Harbor and Santa Cruz Harbor, respectively. Building off the previous work for the SAFFR project, superimpose the tsunami signal on the tidal signal, such that the coupled tsunami and tidal velocities will be predicted. Also provide sediment transport using model developed for SAFRR in FY12. The final products of this effort will be maps of maximum current, maximum and minimum water levels, scour and deposition depths, animations of the output, and a technical report describing the methods and results. Provide high-resolution inundation simulations (inundation and runup, using the nonlinear shallow water COMCOT model, with between 30 and 90 meter resolution at the shoreline) for parts of Ecuador (including the Galapagos Islands) and the coastline of Chile. Existing Pacific Ocean modeling indicates that these are the areas that receive the largest incident energy from the scenario tsunami outside of North America and Hawaii. Compare estimated effects with previous historical events. The final products of this effort will be inundation and runup maps in the study area, and a report describing the simulations and the likely tsunami impacts. Provide visualizations of the results of the tsunami modeling, showing: 1. Both the dynamic earthquake rupture and tsunami generation processes, how they are coupled in time and space, and how the time scales of the two processes are different. 2. The trans-Pacific propagation of the leading tsunami waves, including speed and scale of open ocean propagation, breadth of impacted locations, and transformation of the wave as it enters shallow water and grows. 3. Tsunami in the Port of Los Angeles/Long Beach including modeled flow speed, suspended and contaminated sediment, ship evacuation, ships and debris pulled out of marinas, flooding, and associated extreme events (fire, spills, ships pulled off moorings) with information on environmental, economic, and societal impacts. Provide comparisons of different tsunami models (with different methods of slip distribution) and effects of different implementation of the source characterization on tsunami models. The models to be compared include the Okada half-space, the FK-layered model and the 2D-displacement model using real topography. Analyze the influence of the horizontal displacement by comparing results with and without this component included. Compute the effect of rupture directivity by comparing the results from unilateral and bilateral scenarios with the current (instantaneous) source. Provide predictions of contaminant concentrations throughout the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach due to the scenario event. This work will build on the sediment transport model developed in FY12 to estimate areas of scour and deposition and apply it to identify areas where contaminated sediment has been suspended. This notice of intent to award is not a request for competitive proposals. However, the USGS will consider any capability statements received by 05:00 PDT on Friday, August 22, 2013. Capability statements would normally be considered solely for the purpose of determining whether to conduct a competitive procurement; however, a determination by the Government not to compete the requirement based upon responses to this notice is solely within the discretion of the Government. All responses shall be emailed to Joseph Riccomini, Contracting Officer, at [email protected] so that they are received no later than 05:00 PM PDT on August 22, 2013

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